I'M enthralled by this drama that began to unfold late on Saturday which doesn't look like it's going to end soon. Honest, I'm over the moon because I have never been a fan of the dramas on local TV.

On one side there's the Anwar Ibrahim camp and on the other, the government. To no one's surprise Anwar has accused "those involved of trying to put a spanner in the works of his grandiose political schemes" of repeating the same (1998) script and modus operandi". The truth of the matter is that Anwar in fact is the one repeating 1998. It's the conspiracy theory all over again but just like 1998, he hasn't provided any evidence to back his claim.

To those who have asked me these last couple of days what my take is on this my response is simple. Here goes.

It is possible what was alleged by Mohd. Saiful Bukhari did take place just as it's also possible he may have fabricated the allegation. If you say Saiful was planted by elements within Barisan Nasional, it is also possible that the report may have been part of a grand design by Anwar and/or PKR to discredit the government and its agencies. Could it be part of the various acts and scenes in the drama being staged because Anwar realises that as he gets nearer to his own September 16 deadline to take over the federal government, his chances of success are dimmer and dimmer by the day. This could be a diversion, again not quite unlike the claim by his camp and their sympathisers that Saiful's allegation is a diversion by BN from the Altantuya murder case, the current inflationary pressures burdening the people and problems within the ruling coalition.

In short, everything Anwar accuses the government of doing he is doing just as diligently, if not two or three times more determinedly.

But I also thought long and deep about Saiful to consider if it was possible that he lodged the report because someone, anyone, may have paid him a few million or 10 million ringgit. That too is possible but it seems highly improbable that a good-looking 23-year-old who apparently is engaged to a pretty girl would want to sell his honour, his family's honour and that of everyone who considers him a friend for that kind of money, no matter how big the amount may be to many of us.

Would anyone allow himself to be shamed? Would anyone risk being harmed by the more fanatical Anwar believers? Given the current political scenario and the support the opposition has been enjoying since March 8, if anyone's life is at risk it is Saiful's.

If you sit down and make a level-headed analysis of all the statements made since late Saturday and link this to issues raised from 1998 till now, it is very clear that the government is in a lose-lose situation while Anwar and friends have it win-win. I can visualise the scene a few weeks or months from now.

Assuming that the police find sufficient evidence to prosecute most likely there will be street demonstrations. Expect to hear a statement saying that "we never had any confidence in the neutrality of the police anyway..... the investigation was not transparent".

If the case goes to court and Anwar is found guilty: there could be rioting here and there, maybe even attempts to prevent the authorities from sending him to prison, just like the Harun Idris case in 1978. Statement: "We are not surprised with the decision. After all it was a kangaroo court. The judiciary is still subservient to the executive...."

Today, on reaching his house after leaving the residence of Turkish ambassador Barlas Ozener the de facto opposition leader proclaimed to shouts from his supporters that the report by Saiful was to pre-empt the big plans he had and was due to announce this week. One was about his decision to contest in a by-election and the other the agreement by four Barisan MPs to cross over to Pakatan Rakyat.

I don't know about others but I am having a problem trying to see the link between the report and Anwar's plans. How are the two connected? But assuming that indeed that was the intention of the conspirators surely nothing should stop Anwar from proceeding with his announcement now. He's not in a police lock-up, he's not in jail and he hasn't been charged for anything. He's free as a bird just like 20 plus million Malaysians and no one can muzzle him. I can't see why he should not satisfy our curiosity by making the announcement, at least about the four MPs.

Having combed through the foreign news services, blogs and local news portals I've become more convinced of the wayang kulit being played before us -- PKR leader and Anwar's wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail talking about a death threat Anwar purportedly received three weeks ago which strangely did not seem to affect his demeanour and movements in public; Anwar telling BBC News Hour on Sunday that he was taking refuge at the Turkish Embassy because he feared arrest and assault (similar to the one in 1998) without alluding to the threat of assassination against him, unlike as claimed by the PKR leadership at the press conference yesterday. There were many more hopes and gaps and contradictions.